The Spacing Catastrophe: Brooklyn Without MPJ
Porter Jr. is OUT tonight - here's what the numbers say
INJURY UPDATE: Michael Porter Jr. is OUT tonight (Illness)
Quick Summary
-5.4
ORTG Change
-0.9
DRTG Change
-4.5
Net Rating Change
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The Big Picture
When Michael Porter Jr. sits, the Nets crater. The numbers are stark: -4.5 net rating swing , driven almost entirely by offensive collapse (-5.4 ORTG). The defense actually improves marginally (-0.9 DRTG), but that's cold comfort when you can't score.
This isn't just about losing a shooter. MPJ's gravity—even in a reduced role—creates driving lanes and rhythm threes. Without him, Brooklyn's offense becomes predictable, contested, and stagnant.
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Player Impact Breakdown
Cam Thomas: Volume Without Efficiency
Thomas sees his usage tick up, but the efficiency doesn't follow. Without MPJ spacing the floor, Thomas faces tighter coverage and more aggressive help. His pull-up game suffers most—defenders can afford to crowd him because there's no sniper in the corner demanding respect.
The Young Guys: Sink or Swim
Rookies and second-year players see their roles expand in MPJ's absence. The turnover rate spikes across the board as younger ball-handlers face increased defensive pressure. This is developmental minutes by necessity, not design.
Nic Claxton: Paint Problems
Claxton's rim finishing drops noticeably. Without MPJ's floor spacing, defenses collapse harder on Claxton's rolls and post touches. He's seeing more bodies at the rim and finishing through more contact—with predictably worse results.
Egor Demin: Growing Pains
The rookie point guard's turnover rate balloons in these minutes. He's asked to create more without the safety valve of kicking to an elite shooter. The reads get harder, the windows get smaller.
Jalen Wilson: Stretched Thin
Wilson's defensive versatility gets tested when MPJ sits. He's often asked to guard up a position while also shouldering more offensive creation. The rebounding numbers tell the story—without MPJ's size on the wing, Brooklyn gets hurt on the glass.
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Shot Profile: A Spacing Catastrophe
The Rim Problem (-2.6 FG%, -3.3 freq%)
Brooklyn attacks the rim less frequently AND less efficiently without Porter. This is the death spiral of poor spacing—fewer driving lanes mean fewer rim attempts, and when they do get there, the paint is more crowded. Claxton and the guards can't operate in traffic the way they need to.
The Three-Point Paradox (-4.1 FG%, +1.4 freq%)
Here's where it gets interesting. The Nets actually shoot MORE threes with MPJ out, but they make them at a significantly lower rate. This is fool's gold—they're taking contested, off-rhythm threes instead of the catch-and-shoot looks MPJ's gravity creates. Volume without quality.
The Mid-Range Mirage (+4.8 FG%, -2.1 freq%)
The one bright spot is long two efficiency, but look at the frequency drop. Brooklyn barely goes there. This is likely Cam Thomas pulling up from mid-range when the paint and arc are clogged—he's elite at these shots, but they're not getting them often enough to move the needle.
The Real Story
The shot distribution tells the tale of a team that loses its offensive identity without MPJ. They can't get to the rim, they're forced into bad threes, and their best alternative (Thomas mid-range) doesn't happen enough. The +1.2% turnover rate makes it worse—possessions that should be shots become live-ball turnovers.
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Zone Defense
_No significant changes in defensive zone shooting._
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Efficiency Metrics
Key Changes
Offensive Rating: -5.4 (significantly worse)
eFG%: -3.2% (worse shot quality)
TOV%: +1.2% (more turnovers under pressure)
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Player Metrics
Usage Rate
Turnover Rate
Steal Rate
Block Rate
Def Rebound Rate
Off Rebound Rate
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Bottom Line
Net Rating Change: -4.5 (ORTG -5.4, DRTG -0.9)
Porter Jr.'s absence transforms Brooklyn from a functional offense into a disjointed mess. The spacing disappears, the rim becomes inaccessible, and the team settles for bad threes. Tonight, with MPJ confirmed out due to illness, expect opponents to pack the paint and dare Brooklyn's perimeter players to beat them. Based on the numbers, they won't.
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_Data: NBA 2025-26 Season_